Hello my friend and welcome back! This question actually came up the other day and I felt it was worth sharing, my thoughts on it, in today’s post. Grab a cup of coffee and have a seat while we visit.
Is there a particular time of year when SHTF is more likely to occur than others? Well, I guess that would depend on the cause. I think the best way to approach this one is to look at different scenarios and see if this would apply to them.
EMP/ Cyber-attack – The end result of both of these would be to render a country and its people without electrical power. So, is there a particular time of year when these would do the most damage? The answer to that is definitely YES. If either one of these were to occur in the Dead of winter or at the Peak of Summer, then there effect would be multiplied. Many people use electricity to heat and cool their homes and in the dead of winter, many people would quickly freeze to death without a way to stay warm.
This combined with other things like frozen sources of water, and an inability to travel on snow covered roads would quickly diminish the number of survivors. Even those who have fireplaces would run into issues of locating firewood. Food would also become a critical issue much faster. Where as, in the summer one might be able to hunt for wild game and find plants to eat. In the winter, this would be almost impossible for anyone but the experienced winter hunter. Basically, people would start to die off in a matter of weeks or days rather than months. It’s not a very pleasant scenario for anyone.
But what about the summer, that wouldn’t be too bad would it? While being hit with a power outage in the summer wouldn’t be quite as bad, it would be fraught with its own issues. The trouble is that so many people have become adapted to living in their air conditioned buildings, they actually struggle to survive without it. They no longer possess the knowledge or ability to deal with severe heat. The sick and the infirmed would die off very quickly. Just think back to periods of high heat and all of the elderly and disabled who are found dead, each time it happens. Now combine this with the fact that the heat will cause the bodies to decompose at an increased rate, spreading disease and pestilence to those who are still alive. Without power, water will become an issue in the heat much faster, as many water sources will dry up quickly. No, this would be much than any other time of year with the exception of winter.
While Hurricanes occur only at certain times of year. If electrical power was lost with a hurricane bearing down on the coast, it would add a layer of misery and death, to any other type of attack which may coincide with it. Again, summer would be a bad time to experience any disaster, which could take down communications.
Plague or Virus is another attack which could be made much worse, based on the time of year it occurs. While I would think that the summer would be the most likely time to expect a plague, due to the fact that many more people will be out and traveling, as well as coming in close contact with each other. I guess it would be the type of virus or plague that would determine the time of year which it would be the most destructive. I would imagine that a Flu type virus may do more damage in the winter because that is when they seem to naturally occur.
There are many other types of attacks which can take place, ranging from a nuclear attack to military attack and Martial law. Because winter severely limits transportation and military troops are equipped to deal with the weather, then I would say that both Military attacks and Martial law would both likely occur in the winter, as well.
I believe that the rest of the possible disasters would have little or no effect on the time of year in which they occur. They would be just as deadly in the spring of the year as in the peak of summer or winter. So which is the most likely time of year for an attack on a nation? I would have to say winter and that is just my opinion. The reasoning behind it is that people move around less in the winter and are much easier to track when they do. Combine this with the other effects of a disaster occurring and you have a nightmare scenario. Anyone launching an attack will want to execute it at a time of year which would help it create the maximum amount of casualties and I’m sure that the time of year will be a major consideration for it’s timing. The best any of us can hope for is to be as prepared for it no matter what time of year it occurs.
I guess that is it for today so please stay safe, stay strong and stay prepared. God Save America!
-Sarge-
After going through the, “snow-pocolypse” a couple of years ago that happened in the south, I would suggest that anytime school is in, that would would be the most detrimental. Schools were in panic mode because our roads iced over and very few people could get there. Our school system had hundreds of students that had to spend a couple of nights at the school. I could only imagine how much worse a no-power/no-contact situation would be.
Is there a time of the week for any of these events that would cause it to become worse? I have tried to avoid as much as possible to avoid get out of town weekends and rush hours for that very reason.
That is a good question Rob! I think it would depend a lot on the disaster that occurred. I could only venture a guess, but I would have to say possibly the day before or after a major holiday when people are doing a lot of traveling would probably the worst. I’m thinking Thanksgiving or Christmas would be the most likely. If you wanted to catch the maximum amount of people though I would lean towards Thanksgiving. The reason is that many people leave early for Christmas where as most people actually leave the day before thanksgiving. They also return the day after Thanksgiving in droves. The sky’s and highways are usually packed with who are away from home and their support system. An EMP or Nuclear attack on one of these days would certainly do the most damage. Like I said, this is just my opinion others may see it differently.
-Sarge-
If we should be facing an economic collapse (the most likely kind in my opinion), my bet would be on it occurring in November shortly after the elections. Since a lot of corporations and financial institutions are desperately propping up their financial instruments with borrowed money trying to paper over our country’s economic woes for the sake of their political cronies (such as Hillary), it makes sense that whether their preferred politicians (mostly Democrats, though several elitist “moderate” Republicans are on that list too) get (re)elected or not, they’ll no longer have any reason to maintain the economic facade once the elections are over. If the Clinton crime family gets back into power, they can use the subsequent economic collapse as an excuse to seize more power; if Trump wins, the Clinton crime family and its corporate cronies can lay all the blame for the economic collapse on him even before he actually gets inaugurated.
Either way, that means the jig is up sometime around Thanksgiving. Here’s hoping that, as the old hymn says, “All is safely gathered in ere the Winter storms begin” for you by that time. If not, you and about a quarter of a billion others are in for one awfully bleak Christmas, I dare say.
Dead bodies smell awful and look horrendous, but DEAD BODIES DON’T CREATE/SPREAD DISEASE! This is a common myth; check the following link:
http://www.missions-acf.org/kitemergency/EN/5.%20ACF-Paris%20Toolbox/5.13%20Emergency%20Lessons%20Learned/01%20-%20ACH%20Lessons%20Learned/02%20-%20ACH%20Disasters%20Myths%20and%20Realities.pdf
I grant you that the smell is awful and a bunch of dead bodies together creates a huge horrible smell – but they don’t – by themselves – cause disease!
I hate the cold also sgt. In fact some years i wear long underwear all year around. But I have found no other place in all my travels that i like better than here. everything in my house is run off wood. In fact that is what I am doing now, cutting and splitting 10 pulpwood cords of wood, which is 30 face cords after after i am done. I will be warm this winter.
Nice Yooper! Smart move. 🙂
I hate cold so much that I left Connecticut when I was 17 and joined the army,just so I could leave snow country. I have a fireplace,a wood stove and 3 cords of wood. I can survive a winter in Louisiana with no electricity, but not without firewood. No matter what time of year an EMP might occur, it’s gonna be hard to get used to not have the comforts that electricity provides.
I hear you BC. I hate the cold as well, but all of my children and grandchildren are in Idaho, so that is where I will retire. You can bet I will have a fireplace and plenty of cut wood year round !!!
Depends on where in Idaho you settle. Here in Boise area we have relatively mild winters most years tho I do remember a couple that were brutal. July & Aug are the months I hate. Guess there’s going to be something no matter where you go.
I know what you mean. I lived in Boise for ten years. It does get cold! 🙂